Bookmaker.com Sets Odds on iPhone 4G Sales Today; Upgrade Risks Abound
by Bill French on 24/06/10 at 12:41 pm
As the iPhone 4 hits stores today, Apple fans anxiously wait in line so they can be the first to try out the new device and all of its innovative applications and new hardware capabilities.
Keith Bachman, of BMO Capital Markets, said he believes FaceTime “is a game changer and must-have feature that could provide huge upgrade potential,” as it works only on the iPhone 4. Bachman said that if even 20% of the approximate 50 million installed iPhone users upgrade to iPhone 4, Apple should meet his forecasts for 10.2 million iPhone sales in the September quarter and 12.2 million in the last three months of the year.
With early adopters in mind, CEO Mickey Richardson and his team at Bookmaker.com, one of the leading sportsbooks, have calculated the odds for the number of iPhones to be sold on its debut date. Here are what the odds look like today:
How many iPhone 4 devices will be sold today?
BETWEEN 200,000 – 750,000 +130 42.2% BETWEEN 750.001 – 999.999 -130 57.8% 1 MILLION OR MORE EV 50%
[The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. For Example: Betting on the candidate least likely to win would earn the most amount of money, should that happen.]
Bookmaker.com is a pretty cool site as well – they track odds for television shows such as Project Runway, Top Chef, Lost, and Dancing with the Stars.
But there are upgrade risks…
Social networks are getting hammered this week with comments from people debating the upside and downside of upgrading to iPhone 4 with AT&T. If you want to know the true cost of doing it, check out CBS MoneyWatch blogger Kathy Kristof’s guide to avoiding iPhone 4G sticker shock.
