A Flash™ In The Past: Steve Jobs is Right, Adobe’s Technology Is Long In The Tooth and Should Change or Die

by Bill French on 03/05/10 at 5:00 am

Bill French is an information architect specializing in Internet applications. He is also the co-founder of MyST Technology Partners and Senior Editor for iPhoneCTO.

History is littered with the charred carcasses of widely adopted technologies; Flash™ is simply the next one.

Technology pundits (or users) who suggest that Apple, or any company for that matter, should support Flash™ just because it’s widely adopted, have failed to recognize what the crossroads of a new era in computing looks like. Apple sees an opportunity to take a few dramatic steps forward and at the heart of these steps is a core belief that mobile computing (devices and software) is fundamentally different from ideas and concepts developed 30 years ago.

Steve Jobs’ open letter, which some have unreasonably called the “Flash™ Attack”, has many valid points, specifically, this one:

“Flash™ was created during the PC era – for PCs and mice. Flash is a successful business for Adobe, and we can understand why they want to push it beyond PCs. But the mobile era is about low power devices, touch interfaces and open web standards – all areas where Flash falls short.”

Steve is right, the majority of Flash™ based sites would not provide a good user experience without a mouse, and as near as I can tell, there are few cases where pointing devices will play a role, any role in mobile computing. His view concerning pointing devices applies to all mobile devices, not just Apple’s devices.

And now, it seems, that there’s evidence Flash™ is fading fast according to a recent article by Fortune Brainstorm Tech (CNNMoney). In the article titled “Apple vs. Adobe: Is Flash dying?”, it reveals the current trend lines for various video formats including H.264 (supported broadly by all things i-ish). The chart is a compelling [and typical] example of what happens when better technological approaches emerge to displace long-standing, but outdated technologies.

A Flash™ In The Past: Steve Jobs is Right, Adobe’s Technology Is Long In The Tooth and Should Change or Die

Copyright Encoding.com Via TechCrunch

Certainly, video is not the only aspect [of Flash™] that should be considered, but I have a hunch all things Flashy are about to experience commonplace disruption, which is how Flash™ got started in the first place.

Open, Closed, Proprietary

In my view it’s pointless to debate issues of open or closed environments and petty arguments about who’s system is causing crashes. In the grand scheme, Adobe’s business behaviors are no worse and no better than Apple’s; they’re each trying to remain relevant to their customers and profitable for their stockholders. But one fact is undeniable, Adobe’s Flash™ is long-in-the-tooth and while still very relevant to fixed computing devices, there are few compelling reasons to invest heavily to make it work for mobile devices.

As much as some may despise Jobs for fighting to control the ‘iThingy’ world, he’s executing on a vision to keep Apple products relevant and competitive. Unfortunately, the mobile market has forced Apple to take this position a little earlier than I suspect Jobs had planned.

Ideally, this battle would have occurred 30 months from now when HTML5 and other new and innovative web standard initiatives will be mature enough to provide realistic programming and content delivery alternatives.

The future of mobile computing is all about gestures. Apple’s recent multi-touch gesture patent (reported by PatentlyApple.com) demonstrates some of the new things we’ll be doing with our hands in the very near future. Here’s a good exercise that underscores Steve’s point about today’s Flash apps and pointing devices. Try to envision using these new gestures with any existing Flash™ app.

Figure 1: Patently Apple

I would add that all computing devices [eventually] will include gesture-based interfaces. Ironically, there’s a few gestures that many folks would like to give Steve Jobs right now, and luckily, they’re not in the patent list.

H.264 Has Won, It’s Only A Matter Of Time …

It’s important to note that it won, and was destined to win, long before the Jobs’ letter or his insistent philosophical views became a media circus. It won because it’s a better technological innovation than Flash™; it has nothing to do with iPhone or iPad.

It’s only a matter of time before the emergence of other web technologies and standards cause Flash™ (as we know it) to be displaced.