Top Ten Predictions for the Wireless Industry in 2010

by Andrew Lunde on 20/11/09 at 12:45 pm

Andrew Lunde is a senior iPhone and Internet applications developer. He is the President of Lunde Cognitive Effects Inc. and a writer for iPhoneCTO.

Last night I attended the WirelessTechnology Forum‘s yearly Vision 2010 in Mobile & Wireless. The WTF is a wireless industry association in Atlanta, GA focused specifically on the needs of wireless and mobile technologies products and services providers.

I thought it would be interesting to put together a post on the predictions made last evening and hopefully spark a discussion. You can find a PDF with all the details as provided by inCode Telecom at this link. Thanks to inCode for making their document available and Jorge Fuenzalida of inCode for presenting and participating on the panel.

Wireless Operators Push Netbooks, But They Prove a Mixed Bag

Netbooks are going to be confusing for consumers until they find where they fit in their lives. Carriers are going to find it difficult to support something that consumers view more as a laptop than a phone.

The FCC: Stuck in Neutral with the Net

I don’t see the FCC coming to resolve this next year. Each day people increasingly believe that the net should remain free as in unfiltered and unconstrained.

Wireless Operators Play “Whack-a-Mole” with Data Issues

Carriers will continue to complain about all this data taxing their infrastructure while trying to get higher margins out of their device and service offerings. They can’t have it both ways. We’re all going to want more, so quit whining and fix your networks.

Wireless Data Pricing Looks More Like the Airlines’

I hope not, but it seems inevitable. For a while, the carriers will likely unbundle their offerings so that the very lowest offering will still have some data plan. When each mobile device in the country is addressable and we don’t have to think about the costs of communicating with it, that will be a breakthrough event. My hope is that we get through this a fast as possible and get to an everything for one flat fee plan and maybe even a data only plan.

When all Devices are Smart, What Becomes Genius?

It’s way to early to start thinking of the next class of devices. Probably more likely is that cell phone and smartphone and netbook will all trend to something more generic and encapsulate all of them. Any stabs at what this term will be?

M2M Leads Operators into New Acquisition Area

Inevitable, but early as a prediction. We need to tackle cost per unit and addressability issues first. (IPV6 anyone?)

Looking at Clouds from Both Sides Now

I don’t see carriers as good cloud computing providers. I think that the business model just doesn’t fit with their mindset. Other players are better suited to offer this service and carriers should stick to providing a reliable pipe.

A Device Operating System Bites the Dust

One word or is it two? Palm / Web OS.

MVNOs Get New Lease on Life in a Very Different Form

Not yet, but the biggest force for changing the game in terms of business model is Google. What if you could buy a device with lifetime connectivity included?

Game Console Video Kills the PC Star: at Least for Internet Video

I don’t own a game console, so I can’t really comment here. I do however equate game console owners to early adopters and younger consumers who aren’t burned with the status quo.

Bonus Prediction: You Can’t Track the Players without a Scorecard

Agreed. We are in a period of expansion to be followed by consolidation (every industry goes through this.) We can be assured that the metrics we rely on now won’t even begin to express where the future value is in the industry.