Apple is Listening; Look for iPhone 4GE in 2010

by Bill French on 05/08/09 at 7:00 am

Bill French is an information architect specializing in Internet applications. He is also the co-founder of MyST Technology Partners and Senior Editor for iPhoneCTO.

Dan Dearing, Vice President of Marketing & Product Management for Trust Digital and contributing editor for iPhoneCTO, makes an interesting point in a comment to this article (WARNING: iPhone 3GS Encryption Places Enterprise Data At Risk).

He says that “point-in-time” is a key element we must consider in the debate concerning iPhone security.

“Many in IT might say, just avoid the [iPhone security] issue and use Blackberry. I don’t believe that’s a viable strategy given user pull for non-Blackberry devices such as the iPhone and the Palm Pre. I believe that most will view this as a point in time problem.”

This is an observation that I hadn’t thought of.

Products and services that prove to be hyper-competitive (indeed, disruptive) in spite of their weaknesses, typically emerge with a less-than-ideal feature set. While [architecturally] it’s wise to think about security in the early moments of design as Frank Kastle accurately points out in the same comment thread, we can’t rule out incremental [but significant] improvements by third-party innovators or Apple itself.

I’ll go out on a limb (as I usually do) and predict that in late 2010 Apple will release an iPhone 4GE – a device specifically designed for serious enterprise users. My hunch is there’s a bounty inside Apple for the team(s) that solve these critical shortcomings in the current design, and Apple would be delighted to pay because it paves the way for a $699 (or $899) iPhone.

The high-end of the spectrum is also Apple’s turf – they know how to build high-quality products and establish market demand for “the best of the best”. As such, a $700 iPhone is not only likely, its a competitive strategy that plays into the high-end of the netbook segment. Perhaps the “E” designation will first appear in a tablet, but however their improved enterprise solutions emerge, the “E” designation is clearly where Apple must set its compass heading if the enterprise is important, a fact that has already been established.

Of course, there will be hackers and experts in device design and software engineering who are quick to present evidence that the idea of an uncrackable iPhone 4GE is impossible, to which I would agree. We all know it’s [virtually] impossible to engineer perfect security; the debate is always about degree of risk. However, the demand for iPhone (or iPhone-like) products is an indicator that Apple is probably very busy researching ways to make this product and its infrastructure less susceptible to security threats.

Current iPhone models are not ideal for serious enterprise information applications where sensitive data is involved. And in cases where companies want to take risks, they must mitigate them with significant investments in process, application development, device controls, and policy management. In the meantime, I will continue to believe that all devices can be attacked, hacked, and cracked – even the [next] next generation Apple iPhone 4GE.

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schellack

Historically, enterprises have not had to pay hundreds of dollars for cell phones, just as consumers have not either. I'm not sure they will want to now, when there are comparable, cheaper alternatives that work better with existing infrastructure, are more manageable, and less unsecure.
constableodo

The iPhone encryption doesn't have to be perfect. It only has to be equal to whatever the BlackBerry has, since IT believes anything short of a BlackBerry's security is not worth the effort of implementing. The BlackBerry must be the most secure device ever since the president of the U.S. carries one. I suppose if Apple can ever build an iPhone as secure as a BlackBerry, I guess all businesses will just dump the BlackBerry by saying it's no longer secure enough.

It's really amazing that Apple would put out a handset that a child could get the info off of. What is funny is that people with important data walk around airports and leave their laptops to be stolen. Are laptops as secure as BlackBerrys? No. But they're still being used for supposedly secure data use.
Mark

constableodo: The president having a Blackberry was a false rumor. The Secret Service obviously will not release full data on his hadnset, but enoug has been learned to know that it is a Windows Mobile OS based handset. Not much is known about what apps are installed beyond the base Windows Mobile OS.
billfrench

Constableodo makes a good point – laptops and netbooks are far from secure. In fact, the volume of data at risk is likely many thousands of times greater, yet enterprises tolerate seemingly unacceptable levels of risk and even enable this mismanagement on a widespread basis.

So why all the fuss about a little phone when there are far bigger fish flopping out of the pan? The short answer is likely a combination of media hype and competitors angling for ways to discredit each other.
billfrench

@brittle “And Bill French's evidence for a 4GE is..”

No evidence – just a hunch. Sort of like the hunch I had when I invented LapLink 3 years before the first mention of the word “laptop”; 98 million customers affirmed my hunch. Or when I had the gut feel that the market needed a small business publishing tool for the web in 1994; 1.7 million buyers of QuickSite validated my gut. If it seems like I'm bragging, I am.

I don't have any special predictive gift – it just makes sense this will be Apple's next move. If Apple isn't thinking about a 4GE(like) product, they should be paying me to remind them to think about a 4GE(like) products.

To the issue that Apple has failed to bring out enterprise -class products in the past, I would urge everyone to consider the relative success of its previous products compared with iPhone. At no time in history has Apple experienced this type of demand for anything it has invented. Previous Apple successes in consumer markets encountered only light demand curves and mostly from niche segments – graphical arts, etc. iPhone is a different beast – it's ability to shape-shift and shed its keyboard to meet contextual business requirements head-on, is a very different value proposition. The sales numbers and app development trends suggest the demand is only increasing.
Frank Castle

Interesting but I don't think Apple will dedicate resources to enterprise when they are still making hand over fist profit in the consumer space not to mention SMB that do not have as much policy to adhere to and can accept lower risk.

Any large corporate has or is implementing laptop encryption. TJX showed everyone the kind of fall out a lost laptop can cause and no one wants to be the next TJX. I know I hesitate using my credit card when I'm in there. There is a rush of consumer data protection coming from multiple states that companies can no longer avoid.

The laptop vs. smartphone as a security risk is always going to put smartphone at a higher risk due to a few things:

- they are more portable
- easier to lose / stolen
- lower cost = more deployed

I'd wager a growing segment now issues a low price desktops and a smartphone vs. a laptop. Almost all our senior staff only travel with a mobile device now.

We don't want to dump Blackberry, we want iPhone to be as secure and as easy to manage. Presently that is not possible. Part of the issue is EAS. It's not meant to provide anything other then a door into your Exchange to sync / enforce basic policy. Microsoft wants you to buy seats for Mobile Device Manager 2008 where they offer the expanded management / control. Thus solutions like Trust Digitials have appeal as MDM is a PITA to configure and support not to mention the cost.

Who knows maybe Apple will release a BB client or RIM will provide a hook into BES for iPhone .. anything that combined the two dominant mobile forces would pretty much kill any movement for Android / Pre / Microsoft. RIM could even get out of the smartphone hardware business and decide to focus on the BES backend. Mobility is going through a ton of churn and by 2013 will be a dominate platform for enterprise.

Apple needs to decide what matters more to them. So far it's consumers.
billfrench

Constableodo makes a good point – laptops and netbooks are far from secure. In fact, the volume of data at risk is likely many thousands of times greater, yet enterprises tolerate seemingly unacceptable levels of risk and even enable this mismanagement on a widespread basis.

So why all the fuss about a little phone when there are far bigger fish flopping out of the pan? The short answer is likely a combination of media hype and competitors angling for ways to discredit each other.
billfrench

@brlittle “And Bill French's evidence for a 4GE is..”

No evidence – just a hunch. Sort of like the hunch I had when I invented LapLink 3 years before the first mention of the word “laptop”; 98 million customers affirmed my hunch. Or when I had the gut feel that the market needed a small business publishing tool for the web in 1994; 1.7 million buyers of QuickSite validated my gut. If it seems like I'm bragging, I am.

I don't have any special predictive gift – it just makes sense this will be Apple's next move. If Apple isn't thinking about a 4GE(like) product, they should be paying me to remind them to think about a 4GE(like) product.

To the issue that Apple has failed to bring out enterprise -class products in the past, I would urge everyone to consider the relative success of its previous products compared with iPhone. At no time in history has Apple experienced this type of demand for anything it has invented. Previous Apple successes in consumer markets encountered only light demand curves and mostly from niche segments – graphical arts, etc. iPhone is a different beast – it's ability to shape-shift and shed its keyboard to meet contextual business requirements head-on, is a very different value proposition. The sales numbers and app development trends suggest the demand is only increasing.
Frank Castle

Interesting but I don't think Apple will dedicate resources to enterprise when they are still making hand over fist profit in the consumer space not to mention SMB that do not have as much policy to adhere to and can accept lower risk.

Any large corporate has or is implementing laptop encryption. TJX showed everyone the kind of fall out a lost laptop can cause and no one wants to be the next TJX. I know I hesitate using my credit card when I'm in there. There is a rush of consumer data protection coming from multiple states that companies can no longer avoid.

The laptop vs. smartphone as a security risk is always going to put smartphone at a higher risk due to a few things:

- they are more portable
- easier to lose / stolen
- lower cost = more deployed

I'd wager a growing segment now issues a low price desktops and a smartphone vs. a laptop. Almost all our senior staff only travel with a mobile device now.

We don't want to dump Blackberry, we want iPhone to be as secure and as easy to manage. Presently that is not possible. Part of the issue is EAS. It's not meant to provide anything other then a door into your Exchange to sync / enforce basic policy. Microsoft wants you to buy seats for Mobile Device Manager 2008 where they offer the expanded management / control. Thus solutions like Trust Digitials have appeal as MDM is a PITA to configure and support not to mention the cost.

Who knows maybe Apple will release a BB client or RIM will provide a hook into BES for iPhone .. anything that combined the two dominant mobile forces would pretty much kill any movement for Android / Pre / Microsoft. RIM could even get out of the smartphone hardware business and decide to focus on the BES backend. Mobility is going through a ton of churn and by 2013 will be a dominate platform for enterprise.

Apple needs to decide what matters more to them. So far it's consumers.

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